A ceasefire in Gaza, but at what price?

It is no accident that a ceasefire agreement was finally agreed between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, days before the inauguration of President Trump. Israeli Prime Minister, Netanyahu, takes Trump seriously, in a way that he didn’t his predecessor Joe Biden. The agreement is little different to the one that could have been agreed months ago, aside from the identities of some of the Palestinian prisoners to be released in return for the staged release of the remaining Israeli hostages. But we know that it has suited Netanyahu to procrastinate, as it has bought him more political time. It has also kept his hardline Cabinet together. 

Trump doesn’t want this war to rain on his parade. But Palestinians should be in no doubt that he has little concern for them. And while it is often more sensible to judge Trump by his actions as opposed to his words, he has made it quite clear that ‘all hell’ would be unleashed if (Israeli) hostages weren’t returned by the time he took his Presidential vows.

Much of Gaza is now a moonscape. Schools and universities have been destroyed and much of the health system has collapsed. The death toll may be far higher than that reported by the Gaza civil defense organization. It will take decades to even remove the rubble and more importantly the physical and mental wounds of the Palestinians are profound and lasting. 

Even though Hamas has been severely weakened by the past year of bombardment, Secretary of State Blinken has stated that the United States believes that it has recruited a new generation to take the place of fallen fighters. However, it does seem doubtful that most Palestinians in Gaza want this conflict to continue for a moment longer, still less begin after the first phase of the ceasefire is over. Many actively blame Hamas for the situation that they find themselves in. If the UN were to be able to preside over new elections in Gaza at some point it seems highly unlikely that Hamas would win. And right across the wider region, other than in Yemen, Islamist groups have been weakened, from Hezbollah in Lebanon and to the isolation of hardline Islamist groups in post Assad Syria. Iran is also more isolated. So, if the ‘Axis of Resistance’ has been weakened by American backed Israel, what of the benighted Palestinians themselves? At one level, with Gaza in ruins and with Palestinians in the occupied West Bank experiencing ever higher levels of violence, their situation appears hopeless. However, the horrors of the past year have had a profound effect on global public consciousness. Israel is isolated and distrusted in equal measure. There are ICC arrest warrants out for some of Israel’s leaders. The ‘question of Palestine’, as always referred to by the United Nations, has shot up the international agenda; the desire for a final settlement that guarantees equal rights to Palestinians within the historic boundaries of Palestine has become the cause of our times. 

*Mark Seddon is a former Speechwriter to UN Secretary-General Ban ki moon & former Adviser to the Office of the President of the UN General Assembly