Arab Fall: Tunisia and Algeria Elections Risk Reinforcing Revolution Lost

Hope for approaching elections in Algeria and Tunisia is fading by the day. 

In Algeria, the Hirak protest movement, which five years ago ousted President Abdelaziz Bouteflika after two decades in power, has been debilitated by successive government crackdowns. The National Independent Authority for Elections (ANIE) announced this month it has disqualified 13 candidates from standing in the September 7 election for failing to collect the requisite number of sponsorship signatures, a formidable task in a country where criticising the government has landed hundreds in jail. Amongst those disqualified: Zoubida Assoul, a former magistrate known for defending imprisoned Hirak activists. The entire tally of election candidates authorised to challenge President Abdelmadjid Tebboune now stands at a grand total of two. 

In the heartland of the Arab Spring, Tunisia, appears to be following an eerily parallel dead-end path. At least eight prospective presidential candidates have been prosecuted, convicted or imprisoned, according to an August 20 circular by Human Rights Watch. As in Algeria, the incumbent, President Kais Saied, now faces all of two candidates on October 6. 

Public dismay at the evolving shape of the upcoming elections is being met with heightened crackdowns, including the detention in Algeria of prominent Hirak activists detained on charges of "undermining national unity." In Tunisia, several opposition leaders have been targeted in “anti-corruption” investigations amidst repeated clashes between police and demonstrators. 

In both elections, transparency and scrutiny are obfuscated. In Algeria, the National Independent Authority for Elections, the body held up as ensuring free and fair elections, appears an unlikely entity to take the government to account, with its leadership and operations closely aligned with the political establishment. The government maintains strict control over the media, particularly through the state-run Algerian Press Service (APS), which dominates news coverage. Independent media outlets and journalists who attempt to report critically on the government or the electoral process face severe repercussions. 

In Tunisia, civil society safeguards developed to protect democracy after the 2011 revolution have been undermined by President Saied’s consolidation of power through the suspension of parliament and assumption of extraordinary powers a decade later. Opposition parties report increased difficulties in organising and campaigning, citing government surveillance and restrictions on their activities. The authorities’ use of legal and administrative measures to sideline political opponents has been widely documented by organisations including Amnesty International.

Tunisian media, while more diverse than Algeria’s, also face increasing pressure. Multiple journalists and media outlets have reported increased government interference since President Saied’s power grab. Journalists from the national broadcaster, Tunisian Television, have staged protests against government attempts to control editorial content, particularly relating to coverage of political opposition and unrest against Saied’s rule. For the most part, media outlets are self-censoring their reporting, fearful of repercussions from the authorities.

While international observers will be monitoring the two elections, their access and influence will be heavily restricted. The European Union is deeply engaged with both countries, particularly on its core issues of migration, counterterrorism and energy security. However, any perception of external meddling in the electoral process from the EU could inflame nationalist sentiment and serve to further entrench the current regime – particularly in Algeria with its long history of suspicion towards foreign interference, especially from its former colonial ruler France.

Tunisia’s more open dialogue with the international community since the 2011 revolution has become muted amid caution from Europe over the erosion of democracy under President Saied. As in Algeria, the challenge for the EU and other international actors lies in straddling support for democratic processes while avoiding crossing the line into anything that might be viewed as neocolonial interference.

Opportunity lost

With limited international scrutiny, sparce competition from candidates, a subdued media, and an election apparatus rigged to serve the incumbent presidents, the most likely outcome of both elections is a continuation of the status quo rather than any sweeping changes. 

In Algeria, despite significant public disillusionment and the recent memory of the Hirak movement’s powerful uprising, the political elite appears destined to maintain its grip on power. The election process, while outwardly democratic, risks reinforcing existing power structures rather than challenging them. 

In Tunisia, the political landscape is more volatile, with recent polls showing a fragmented electorate. But while President Saied’s consolidation of power has alienated many voters, opposition appears weakened and divided. It seems unlikely that the elections will produce a government with the broad mandate necessary to implement meaningful change. 

All of this translates to missed opportunity.  Both nations’ most likely election scenarios point to a slow pace of policy reform, with incremental changes rather than the bold political, economic and technological innovations needed to realise the enormous potential of the region.  

Algeria’s economy, with its heavy reliance on hydrocarbons, has been whipsawed by fluctuating global oil prices. Yet, with one of the highest levels of solar radiation in the world, the country has massive potential for economic and energy diversification. Its vast solar resources have already prompted interest from world-leading energy producers, including the Desertec Industrial Initiative (DII), a European consortium that proposed a massive project to generate solar power in the Sahara Desert. While this project initially stalled, it could yet unlock investments upwards of $400 billion across the Maghreb region, with Algeria receiving a substantial portion of this to develop its solar infrastructure.   

TotalEnergies has also announced plans to develop solar energy projects in Algeria, including partnerships with the state-owned company Sonatrach to build solar power plants that could potentially export electricity to Europe. In the technology sector, Huawei has been active in helping Algeria develop its digital infrastructure, investing in cloud computing, 5G infrastructure, and e-governance initiatives.  

Maximising the opportunity from these and further potentially massive scale projects requires a government willing to implement meaningful steps to open up the economy. To date, efforts to diversify Algeria’s sources of income and bring in foreign investment have been consistently undermined by bureaucratic inefficiencies, corruption, and an unpredictable regulatory environment.  

In Tunisia, financing to address mass unemployment and subsidies to undercut soaring inflation are hampered by ballooning public debt levels. The tourism sector, which once accounted for almost a tenth of the country’s GDP, has potential for a resurgence. Investment from Gulf countries in particular, such as Qatari Diar’s $80 million project to develop luxury resorts along Tunisia’s Mediterranean coast, could expand significantly under the right conditions. The manufacturing sector, which has attracted substantial investment from companies like Leoni AG and Faurecia, has equivalent potential within a stabilised political environment, along with agriculture. The World Bank’s $140 million Tunisia Irrigated Agriculture Intensification Project aims to improve water management and agricultural productivity, boosting the output of key export products like olives and citrus fruits. With the right reforms, additional billions of foreign direct investment is waiting to help to revitalise the economy.

Far too many realisable opportunities like these are put out of reach, with both countries missing out on transformative opportunities for growth. A lack of robust engagement internationally and weakened democratic institutions at home risk deepening a cycle of autocracy and economic introversion. The outcome of these next two months of elections will shape the region’s social and economic landscape for a generation to come.

*Gavin Serkin is the author of Frontier: Exploring the Top Ten Emerging Markets of Tomorrow, Journalist and Editorial Consultant on emerging & frontier markets and technology, with particular focus on Africa, blockchain, ESG and impact investment.