Are France and Algeria on a collision course?

The twentieth century was dominated by two intensely destructive World Wars. On both occasions, as they finally ended, the cry went-up; ‘Never again!’  Never again would hundreds of thousands of young men perish in the mud of Flanders. Never again would millions perish in concentration camps or on the Eastern Front. After the First World War, the League of Nations was born, with the explicit intention of preventing another World War. It failed. And now eighty years on from the Second World War, the League’s successor, the United Nations finds itself buffeted by mighty side winds. What is often described as the ‘rules based’ system which is governed by ‘international law’ are under sharp attack, as old tectonic plates begin to move again, and state actors go their own way, and multilateralism gives way to unilateralism. Almost wherever you look the institutions set up to mitigate conflict are themselves under threat. This week EU leaders pledged $800 billion to fund a massive increase in military spending. The EU is another organization, born essentially to keep the peace, but which is now preparing for possible war.

In the Maghreb relations between Morocco and Algeria continue to deteriorate. Old enmities between Algeria and France are never far away but have become heightened since President Macron told the French Parliament that he believed that Western Sahara should be under Morocco’s control. But now, joint military training and exercises by Morocco and France, near the Algerian border, planned for this September, has upped the ante even further. A furious Algeria has summonsed the French Ambassador to object to the plans and has described them an ‘unjustified military escalation’. The joint military exercises, called Chergui 2025 – which can be either translated as a ‘wind’ or ‘perfume’ is seen as the former by Algeria and as an ill wind at that. The war of words further intensified as Lounès Magramane, Secretary-General of Algeria’s Foreign Ministry said; "This move will escalate tensions between the two countries to a new level of severity". While France may point to its longstanding military agreements with Morocco and is still yet to react officially to the anger emanating from Algiers, as in many other parts of the World, older restraints are under threat as never before. It is probably a truism to say that relations between France and Algeria which were already poor have significantly worsened and that the situation between these two countries is more strained than between Algeria and Morocco. And where not so very long ago the influence of the United States and the EU acted as a restraining factor, both, for altogether different reasons are now preoccupied elsewhere. And what makes the situation even more volatile is the confluence of a perfect storm of different issues which has put France and Algeria on a collision course – unless of course President Macron decides to do some elegant diplomatic and political footwork. These include the obvious military tensions but also a growing row between the countries over migration.

Morocco is of course quite entitled to hold military exercises with whichever country it so chooses – as is Algeria for that matter. And yet these are deeply dangerous and sensitive times. President Macron has some serious reassurance work on his hands.

*Mark Seddon is a former Speechwriter to UN Secretary-General Ban ki moon & former Adviser to the Office of the President of the UN General Assembly