Can Egypt and Turkey’s recent reproachment help stabilize Libya?

Oil exports in Libya resumed last month after a pause caused by a dispute over control of the country’s central bank, which oversees oil exports. It was seen as a very serious crisis, and one that some analysts say may only have been temporarily solved. It required intense negotiations, with suggestions that various parties, including armed groups in Tripoli, could still try to take advantage of whatever has happened over these last several months. Meanwhile in parallel, important ongoing diplomatic developments in the region have been presenting what could be a new opportunity for Libya: the thawing of relations over the last few years between Egypt and Turkey, is particularly relevant, as the two countries look to make the ongoing political crisis in Libya a priority. 

This is a significant turnaround. Libya once was a point of Turkish Egyptian rivalry, with Cairo backing Khalifa Haftar’s eastern backed Libyan parliament in Benghazi, and Ankara supporting the western, UN recognized Tripoli-based Government of National Unity.  In February this year President Erdogan met with President Sisi in Cairo; last month Egyptian President Sisi, visited Ankara, the first time in over a decade that either leader had visited each other’s capital. As a result of that most recent meeting President Sisi asserted in a press conference that “we agreed to consult between our institutions to achieve security and political stability.” 

And of course, part of this renewed cooperation is based around mutual economic benefits. Turkey and Egypt have recently signed over 30 agreements aimed at boosting trade to $15 billion over the next five years. As observers point out the economic collaboration has set the stage for their joint approach to the Libyan situation. Both nations were instrumental in pressing for Libya’s competing governments to reach an agreement to end the oil blockade. 

Nothing in Libya, however, is simple; Libya’s agreements with Turkey and Italy for oil and gas exploration have also raised tensions with Greece and Egypt over maritime borders. Despite the Egypt-Turkey cooperation, other foreign powers still maintain influence in Libya, complicating the peace process. Yet the two countries have found common ground on other regional issues, including opposition to Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. 

The question is, despite this complex web of external influences and internal factions, can there be a lasting stability in Libya? The reproachment of Egypt and Turkey is perhaps one important step in the right direction. Writing in Arab News recently, Hafed Al-Ghwell, senior fellow and executive director of the North Africa Initiative at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, says “a successful partnership between Egypt and Turkey in Libya could serve as a cornerstone for broader regional peace and cooperation.” Al-Ghwell goes on to suggest that “Egyptian and Turkish support for what is likely to be rapid post-transition economic and social development in Libya is another area in which their rapprochement can potentially have an impact. Investments in infrastructure, education, and healthcare, which will be essential for the reconstruction of Libya, could benefit from joint initiatives by Cairo and Ankara.” A positive circle of diplomatic and economic initiatives by Egypt and Turkey could potentially help turn the corner for Libya. 

*Kieran Baker is an Emmy award winning journalist who has started up various networks including Al Jazeera English, Bloomberg TV Africa and TRT World.