Climate change and migration across the Maghreb

A few weeks ago, the World Bank published a report: “Climate Change Impacts on the Blue Economy in Morocco: Prospects for Jobs in Coastal Tourism,” where they suggested that Morocco’s coastal tourism sector, a key driver of the economy, could lose up to 32% of its jobs by 2035 because of climate change. That is a staggering statistic, and the report suggested that those cities most at risk were Agadir, Tangier-Tetouan, and Casablanca, however it didn’t spell out the exact reasons or results of climate change per se- issuing instead a warning for Morocco to invest in climate-resilient coastal tourism. 

If this is alarming for Morocco things are a lot worse in Libya, Tunisia and Algeria. Tunisia is facing an escalating climate crisis. According to the World Bank, a combination of political, geographic, and social factors have made Tunisia “one of the Mediterranean countries most exposed to climate change.” A year ago, the government was forced to implement water rationing to address a severe drought. And the country’s most vulnerable residents—many of whom rely on agriculture and fishing for their income—are being hit the hardest by worsening water and food scarcity and rising temperatures. In fact, temperatures are rising twice as fast across North Africa. 

Algeria is facing extreme climate events that have gradually increased its vulnerability. It is experiencing recurring periods of drought, which have become longer, that have in turn exacerbated the desertification phenomenon. In fact, more than 50 million hectares are currently suffering from a very high level of desertification, where the rural population - consisting mainly of farmers and cattle breeders - are forced to migrate to large cities to ensure their survival. This situation is a direct cause of soil degradation and scarcity of water resources in those areas. 

Last year the floods in Derna, Libya had a catastrophic impact; Jagan Chapagain, Secretary General of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) described it as a “wake-up call for the world” as the implications of climate change are starting to take hold. But Libya is experiencing something in addition; climate change acts as a threat multiplier, exacerbating the vulnerabilities of migrants in other countries who are increasingly ending up in Libya. The data suggests that climate-related events are indirect migration drivers through their negative impact on local economies and workers, particularly those reliant on agriculture. Refugees originate from Eritrea, Ethiopia, Iraq, Palestine, Sudan and Syria. The International Organization for Migrants estimates that there are 250,000 migrant workers in Libya, of whom some 50,000 are considered vulnerable. 

So, what can be done to try to solve or reduce the impact of climate change? There is a need to prioritize renewable energy development, implement climate-smart agriculture practices, build resilient infrastructure against extreme weather events, promote sustainable lifestyles, invest in water management systems, and foster regional cooperation to tackle shared challenges like desertification and drought. It’s probably the biggest challenge facing the region and of course the world. The hope is the Maghreb can prioritize these solutions.   

*Kieran Baker is an Emmy award winning journalist who has started up various networks including Al Jazeera English, Bloomberg TV Africa and TRT World.