Climate change will make drought and flooding for the Maghreb inevitable

2024 was the hottest year on record and most experts agree that this is a result of ongoing climate change. The impact of that appears multi-faceted. Its leading to more ‘extreme weather’ and that manifests itself in alarming ways.

What I didn’t quite appreciate is that those same scientists now confirm that global floods and droughts are also worsened by climate change. According to a study published recently in the journal Nature Water, the intensity of extreme drought and rainfall has “sharply” increased over the past 20 years.

The researchers say the data confirms that both the frequency and intensity of rainfall and droughts are increasing due to burning fossil fuels and other human activity that releases greenhouse gases. A warmer atmosphere increases the rate at which water evaporates during dry periods. It also holds more water vapor, which fuels heavy rainfall events. The scientists noticed that the dramatic swing between extreme drought and unprecedented flooding, dubbed “weather whiplash,” is becoming more common in certain regions, especially the Maghreb.

In 2023, Tropical Storm Daniel caused Libya's deadliest flooding for over a century. Affected areas experienced strong winds and heavy rainfall, leading to the collapse of two dams and subsequent catastrophic flooding, which destroyed homes, hospitals, roads and power lines. Thousands of people were killed. Last September deadly floods hit Morocco after ‘a years’ worth of rain in 2 days. Usually arid areas in southern Morocco and Algeria were drenched in floods caused by massive rainfall. 

In contrast 2024 saw Morocco’s sixth year of drought in a row which is creating enormous challenges for farmers. Recognizing the severity of the drought, the Moroccan government has increased its efforts to address the country's water scarcity. One key initiative is the implementation of a national water management strategy, aligned with guidelines set out by King Mohammed VI. Seawater desalination has emerged as a cornerstone of Morocco’s water management efforts. Currently, the country operates 12 desalination plants with a total capacity of 179.3 million cubic meters of water per year. Plans are in place to construct seven additional desalination plants by 2027, which will increase capacity by another 143 million cubic meters.

It is also requiring scientific and agricultural innovation. Moroccan farmers are adopting climate-smart agricultural practices to cope with the drought. The development of drought-resistant seeds has been a significant advancement in this regard. Research centers such as the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) are pioneering the development of resilient genotypes that can withstand both drought and heat while maintaining high yields. These "elite lines" of grain, including wheat and barley, have shown promising results, with some farmers achieving yields as high as four tons per hectare, even with minimal rainfall.

Again, we are looking to technology and science to help navigate the ever-increasing threats. Climate change is here to stay and how the Maghreb adapts will define the next generation’s ability to prosper.

*Kieran Baker is an Emmy award winning journalist who has started up various networks including Al Jazeera English, Bloomberg TV Africa and TRT World.