Egypt’s “delicate balance” with Sudan

Earlier this week President Sisi held meetings with Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and pledged his "continued support"; Sisi went on to call for “a ceasefire and sparing the blood of Sudanese brothers."  

It’s been over eighteen months since intense fighting broke out between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group also known as the RSF.  The clashes were sparked by a dispute over how a future military in the country would operate together, and how the RSF, led by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, more commonly known as Hemedti, could be integrated into the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by Gen. Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan.  

Understandably the conflict in Sudan has been a major source of concern for its northern neighbor Egypt. Egypt and Sudan have common borders, cultural ties, and interconnected political and economic interests. The two countries share a history dating back to ancient civilizations along the Nile. So, in terms of regional security, it is not surprising perhaps that over the years Egypt has tended to support a strong Sudanese military. Within a country where the army has often controlled the government directly or indirectly, backing the military made sense. This traditional ‘inclination’ towards the Sudanese army means Egypt is now walking a significant diplomatic tightrope. 

Diplomats and analysts, however, say Egypt feels more comfortable dealing with Burhan and sees him as the most likely guarantor of its interests, including in negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam being constructed on the Blue Nile upstream of Sudan and Egypt. The issue of water security plays a very significant factor in the regional equation.  

Writing recently in Arab News Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy asserted that while there maybe perceptions of Egypt supporting a particular side there are greater issues in play: Egypt “remains neutral but has the military capacity to maintain peace in Sudan in the future by cooperating with whichever authority” prevails. 

Yet Egypt, in a way, has no choice but to be involved in Sudan with Egypt being one of the primary destinations of Sudanese refugees, roughly half a million have now fled to Egypt. Things have also been complicated by outside factors or foreign entities. If there is a perception that Egypt is backing Burhan, then there is a similar one that the UAE is backing the RSF. According to Andreas Krieg, Associate Professor at King’s College, London talking to Reuters, he said that “the UAE has provided Hemedti, who grew rich through the gold trade, with a platform for channeling his finances as well as public relations support for the RSF.” Egypt obviously doesn’t want to go up against the UAE who are important financial backers in a series of property deals in Egypt.  

What we do know is that so far, several conferences to try to solve this conflict have failed; mediators such as the U.S. or Saudi Arabia have not been able to facilitate any clear outcome. In a conversation with the Cairo Review, former Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy noted that if Egypt plays any role in mediation, “it will be with the objective of creating an environment for the Sudanese to make decisions themselves”.  In fact, the Cairo Review summed things up very well when it said that: “Egypt is therefore in the difficult position of having high stakes in the conflict and its outcome but having to balance its own vulnerabilities with the real risk of making things worse. “And as Fahmy put it, “It is a delicate balance.”

Kieran Baker is an Emmy award winning journalist who has started up various networks including Al Jazeera English, Bloomberg TV Africa and TRT World.