Egypt's Desert Greening Plan Faces Skepticism

Egypt's ambitious "Future of Egypt" project aims to transform 16,800 sq. km of desert into farmland before 2027, with a $5 billion artificial river providing the necessary irrigation.

Critics, however, question the feasibility and sustainability of this effort given Egypt's annual water deficit, which the UN estimates at 7bn cubic meters.

“You have huge amounts of water under the Western desert but it’s limited,” Richard Tutwiler, a former director of the Cairo-based Research Institute for a Sustainable Environment, told the Guardian.  Satellite images recently revealed the rate of water depletion under the Western desert has doubled since President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi took office in 2024.

“What about future generations?” said Tutwiler. “If you use up all the water, they won’t have water in the desert.

The massive infrastructure investments undertaken by al-Sisi have contributed substantially to Egypt’s debt-to-GDP ratio that currently exceeds 90%.  Under pressure from the International Monetary Fund, Egypt has recently embarked on a series of austerity measures including tripling the price of subsidized bread and increasing the cost of fuel to reduce its debt obligations. Agriculture projects seem to be exempt from any cuts. In May, al-Sisi said Egypt would spend an additional $3.8 billion over the coming years to support his agricultural plans.

“It’s serious, serious money,” David Sims, author of Egypt’s Desert Dreams, which examines past government schemes in the country, told The Guardian.  “Somebody is going to have to pay for all this.”

The government claims this initiative will boost agricultural exports and help stabilize the economy but concerns persist over the depletion of groundwater reserves and rising soil salinity. Additionally, there is skepticism about the project's actual progress and benefits for ordinary Egyptians, particularly given soaring food prices.

With only 20% of the reclamation target reportedly achieved, doubts also remain about the project's viability and transparency, as military involvement and lack of financial disclosures raise further questions.