Fall of Assad may spur Russia to seek naval presence in Libya

The toppling of the Assad regime in Syria has prompted its ally Russia to withdraw its ships from Syria’s Tartus naval base, according to satellite images reviewed by the BBC. 

Currently, Russian ships are reportedly positioned offshore in the Mediterranean Sea while the government assesses developments in Syria. Tartus, Russia’s sole repair and replenishment hub in the Mediterranean, holds strategic importance for Moscow.

This week, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Moscow has opened lines of communication with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group responsible for Assad’s ouster, to discuss the future of its military presence in Syria. He cautioned against premature assumptions about Russia’s bases there.

Despite this, think tanks such as the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War predict that Russia may pivot towards strengthening ties with Libya’s eastern-based administration led by Khalifa Haftar, according to Africa Confidential.

While Russian airbases already exist in Libya, Moscow has shown interest in establishing a naval base in Tobruk, located on Libya’s Mediterranean coastline. Haftar, a long-time ally of Russia, has previously welcomed Russian ships to Tobruk.

Frederik Van Lokeren, a naval analyst and former Belgian officer, told The Economist that Tobruk’s port infrastructure remains underdeveloped compared to Tartus, potentially limiting its strategic utility.

Nevertheless, expanding ties with Libya’s resource-rich government could enhance Russia’s influence in North Africa and disrupt European energy supplies, as noted by Africa Confidential.