France’s declining influence across the Sahel

The exodus from the International Organisation of La Francophonie continues apace. This week we learned that Mali has withdrawn from the organization set up to bring French speaking countries together in order to foster trade and influence. But then Mali, in common with other countries which have already withdrawn, including Niger and Burkina Faso, believe that the trade and influence is primarily about the needs of France, particularly that country’s security needs. Mali’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement saying; ‘Mali cannot remain in an organization whose actions contradict constitutional principles based on state sovereignty’. All three countries have of course experienced military coups, and all three countries have bridled at the application of sanctions by France that have followed. So, while the issue of sovereignty is offered as the official reason for Mali’s withdrawal, none of this can be seen without the context of Russia’s growing involvement in the region and its willingness to fill any void left by France. In any event membership of the organization had already been suspended for all three counties, so the highly publicized final walk out by all three countries was not only intended to show a degree of solidarity between them but also to show France and the other Francophonie, that they did not call the shots. Earlier this year, these three nations also withdrew from ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States), accusing the bloc of ‘operating under French influence’.

The walk-out may not be as damaging to the Francophonie, which counts 56 countries as Member States and which has claimed that ‘just as three countries decided to leave, five joined’, as some observers have claimed. Economically and militarily, Niger, Burkina Faso and Niger do not command a great deal of influence. However, it is the growing influence of Russia in the Sahel that alarms some states and also the opportunities that may be afforded Islamist groups in the region. It should also be noted that until recently French forces were active in Mali and throughout the Sahel region, and that the French military presence is either shrinking or disappearing altogether. All French troops will have left a key Francophonie nation, Senegal, by the end of this year, with Chad and Cote D’Ivoire following in showing French forces the door. Only Gabon and Djibouti will continue to station French military forces going forward. Thierry Vircoulon, an Associate Research Fellow at the French Institute of International Relations’ Sub-Saharan Africa Centre has said that “There is a clear collapse of French policy in Africa. The withdrawal of the French troops and basically the end of the French military presence in Africa is a symbol of that collapse”.

The security situation in the Sahel does alarm some of the English-speaking countries in the region, particularly Ghana and Nigeria. The former has been engaged in diplomatic footwork designed at solving some of the issues between the three states and the Francophonie. But with this week’s decision by Mali those efforts appear to have stalled.  

*Mark Seddon is a former Speechwriter to UN Secretary-General Ban ki moon & former Adviser to the Office of the President of the UN General Assembly