France’s influence across the region seems to be waning – is that a good thing?

In February 1960, the then British Prime Minister, Harold MacMillan travelled to Cape Town where he gave his famous ‘Wind of Change’ to the South African Parliament. The speech was a statement of the obvious; Britain, and also France were in retreat from their African empires; the Gold Coast had become independent Ghana and Nigeria, the largest and most populous country in Africa had just gained its independence from Britain. However, it was the French who had just pulled down the tricolour from right across West and Equatorial Africa, hanging on only in far-away Djibouti. Morocco had of course become free of French rule some years earlier, while the Pieds Noir settlers of Algeria, with the full backing of Metropolitan France fought a losing and bloody battle in Algeria until De Gaulle finally realized that the game was up in 1962.

And yet despite their political independence, many of the Francophone countries were still economically and militarily tied to France. The French maintained sizeable military garrisons in Chad, Senegal, Cote D’Ivoire, Gabon and the Central African Republic. These forces were liberally used, and sometimes to prop up monsters such as the self-styled ‘Emperor’ Bokassa of the Central African Republic, a former French Army corporal. 

But Africa’s ‘back-yard’ is turning – and quite rapidly. It no longer sees France necessarily as part of the solution, but as part of a problem. Towards the end of November, Chad announced it would terminate its decades-long military cooperation agreement with Paris, and Senegal, long seen as the most Francophone of the Francophone countries followed just hours later.  Recent military coups in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have taken place with strong public opposition to a French military – and the new governments soon ended France’s military presence in their countries. Of more concern to the West at least is the situation in Mali, where the UN MINURSO peace-keeping operation ended a year ago and where French troops were subsequently expelled following the new military junta's decision to partner with the Russian paramilitary, mercenary Wagner Group. France has also faced a similar turn of the screw in Niger and Burkina Faso.  Today Djibouti still hosts French troops, along with smaller numbers in Cote D’Ivoire and Gabon -although the latter has added insult to French pride by joining the Commonwealth, alongside other Francophone countries, Togo and Rwanda. Rwanda has even jettisoned French as an official language in favour of English.

Not every African nation is happy with the potential vacuum created by France’s precipitate withdrawal. English-speaking ECOWAS countries such as Ghana and Nigeria are concerned that fundamentalist Islamic groups could become yet more power still. Northeastern Nigeria and the Lake Chad region are cases in point, and there are obvious issues around the Russian Wagner group. There is a belief that as a mercenary force and an extension of unofficial Russian influence in the region, they are just as capable of operating for a military junta as they might be a jihadist government. Some will be looking to see how for instance, Russia re-positions itself in Syria. There Russia is keen to hang on to its military and naval bases despite the collapse of the Assad regime, a regime until recently it was prepared to fight for militarily. 

*Mark Seddon is a former Speechwriter to UN Secretary-General Ban ki moon & former Adviser to the Office of the President of the UN General Assembly