Giorgia Meloni’s migration policy encounters rough seas

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has staked much of her political capital on controlling migration from North Africa. Her strategy of striking deals with Tunisia and Libya has faced major setbacks, the most damaging being the political fallout from Italy’s release of a Libyan official wanted by Interpol. The fallout highlights the precarious balance between Italy’s diplomatic overtures in the Maghreb and the domestic political cost of realpolitik.

Meloni’s migration policy outsources border control to North African governments, mirroring the EU’s trend of externalizing migration management. Her administration has signed agreements with Tunisia to stem the flow of migrants and has sought similar cooperation from Libya, a country notorious for human rights abuses in its detention centers. Yet these deals rest on fragile partnerships with authoritarian and unstable regimes, leaving Italy vulnerable to diplomatic crises. 

Italy recently released Al-Mabrouk Abdul Hafiz, a Libyan security official detained at Rome’s Ciampino Airport in early March. Hafiz, who served in Libya’s interior ministry, was held briefly on an Interpol warrant reportedly issued by Tunisia. But rather than extradite him, Italian authorities swiftly freed him and allowed his return to Libya, raising speculation about the political motivations behind the decision. Critics have suggested that Meloni’s government feared jeopardizing delicate negotiations with Libyan authorities over migration control.

The domestic backlash was swift. Opposition leaders accused Meloni of compromising Italy’s judicial independence to appease Libyan factions. Even within her ruling coalition, discontent simmered. Matteo Salvini’s League, which has built its support on an uncompromising stance against migration, is wary of appearing complicit in backroom deals with a country that has been widely condemned for its treatment of migrants. The incident has also strained relations with Italy’s judiciary, which resents political interference in high-profile cases.

The broader risks of Meloni’s migration strategy are becoming apparent. While her government touts a decline in arrivals—down 60% in the first months of 2024—such short-term gains are fragile. Past experience suggests that North African governments use migration flows as leverage, opening or closing the tap based on their political and financial interests. The Meloni government’s willingness to placate Libya now sets a precedent that could be exploited in future negotiations.

Italy’s European partners, meanwhile, have been critical. France and Germany, already skeptical of Rome’s unilateral dealings with Tunisia, are wary of an Italian approach that prioritizes immediate political gains over long-term stability in the Maghreb. The EU’s broader strategy of migration containment risks being undermined by what critics call Italy’s inconsistent and overly transactional approach. Unlike Italy’s short term approach, EU policy focuses on reducing migration’s root causes by investing in Sub-Saharan economies, funding infrastructure, education, and jobs to discourage departures.

As Meloni navigates this crisis, she faces a painful lesson in the limits of her hardline migration policy. Managing migration through authoritarian partner regimes carries significant moral and political costs. And as the Hafiz affair shows, the price of these arrangements can be steep.

*Lonzo Cook is a journalist and writer. He spent two decades at CNN in a series of senior editorial and management roles including leading breaking news operations across Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. He currently works as a senior communications strategist, partnering with corporations and executives to develop integrated communication strategies to connect with audiences in our fast paced, ever changing engagement landscape.