Horn of Africa: New security cooperation deal isolates Ethiopia

A new security cooperation deal between Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia is reshaping alliances in the Horn of Africa, potentially isolating Ethiopia and raising concerns about regional conflict, AFP reports. The three countries held a surprise summit in Eritrea’s capital, Asmara last week, where they agreed to form a trilateral committee for strategic cooperation focused on regional security. Analysts view the pact as largely aimed at countering Ethiopia’s influence.

Egypt’s long-standing dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Cairo sees as a threat to its water supply, is a key factor behind the alliance. Additionally, Ethiopia’s relationship with Eritrea has deteriorated since the 2022 peace deal that ended the Tigray conflict, and Somalia’s maritime dispute with Ethiopia adds to the complexity.

While experts say this move is more about diplomatic posturing than immediate military confrontation, the lack of communication and growing tensions could escalate into conflict, especially as Ethiopia seeks sea access through Somaliland.