Is Algeria becoming more antagonistic across the Maghreb?

Many observers and analysts believe that Morocco and Algeria are closer to actual war that at any time over the last three to four decades. This view is by some accounts shared by the Algerian defence establishment, which rarely allows its views to permeate much further than its own close ranks. Recent events in North Africa and the Sahel also point to a deteriorating security situation between Algeria and some of its near neighbours, particularly Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, countries which have drawn closer to one another, even as they have moved away from close defence ties with France and historic ties with Algeria. This week those respective members of the Sahel Alliance withdraw their Ambassadors from Algiers, following the downing of a Malian drone by Algeria. The Algerian government claimed that the drone had violated Algeria's airspace by around two kilometres. As these events unfolded, the concern Morocco shares with ECOWAS members around the growing influence of Russia in the Sahel is only equalled by its concern over its relations with Algeria which continue to deteriorate.

To what extent is growing global economic, military and climate insecurity disrupting relations between Algeria and other Maghreb countries and in particular between Algeria and Morocco, arguably the last remaining stable countries in the region? This is a question that may be not be answered by the same observers and analysts who believe that the two countries are the closest to war than they have been for a long time – and precisely because the answer that they give is likely to antagonise one side or another. 

But the answer surely is that these three key factors are driving both countries further apart and throw in the chaos factor of the Trump administration, and these once stable parts of the Maghreb becomes even more vulnerable.

The truth is that stability is working for both Morocco and Algeria. A quick glance at the military juntas ruling with an iron rod to the south; failed and ungovernable Libya; an increasingly authoritarian Tunisia and an Egypt experiencing economic turmoil, is surely enough to deter hot heads from either side from taking anything further. Sudan is at war with itself, and Chad, Mali and Niger are deeply unstable. Added to this is the realisation that for different reasons both Morocco and Algeria matter a great deal economically to Europe. In the second quarter off 2023, Algeria was the largest supplier of piped natural-gas imports to the European Union from outside the region. Meanwhile, Morocco’s expanding economy and markets, alongside its political stability, recommend it to many European countries. So given these close relationships there is surely a desire in dangerous and unstable times to avoid conflict. There is something else that the leaders of all the Maghreb countries might consider; however bad things can get, ‘jaw, jaw’ is better than ‘war, war’. Because while it is always relatively easy to start a war, it is always much more difficult to end one.

*Mark Seddon is a former Speechwriter to UN Secretary-General Ban ki moon & former Adviser to the Office of the President of the UN General Assembly