Libya’s unfolding story

In 2011, Britain and France, at the behest of NATO intervened, in support of the forces allied to the National Transitional Council in eastern Libya who were in open rebellion against the rule of Muammar Gadaffi. The situation descended into civil war, with France and Britain claiming that they were intervening on humanitarian grounds to protect civilians in the east of the country. Gadaffi, who had more recently been courted by the West and persuaded to get rid of his stockpile of Weapons of Destruction, was the fall guy. He was toppled and killed in gruesome fashion on October 11^th, having been flushed from a storm pipe from where he was hiding.  

Gadaffi had long been a bete noire of the West. As a young army officer, he had toppled the pro-Western King Idris in 1969, and positioned Libya as a force for pan Africanism and Arab unity. He also funnelled arms to the Irish Republican Army which was seeking to drive British troops out of Northern Ireland and bring about a reunification of Ireland. He ruled the oil rich nation with an iron fist, so much so that the fissures and cracks within the country were effectively papered over. The collapse of his regime sent the country in a different direction. 

Ever since, Libya has been at odds with itself, the essential divisions between those in the West and East unresolved. The civil war may have ended in 2020, but there is a new crisis unfolding. A battle over thecontrol of Libya’s central bank has paralysed the economy and sparked new fears of conflict. Oil exports have dropped dramatically in recent weeks and Libyans are facing the humiliation of being parked in long queues for the fuel that is the centre piece of their economy.  The country is now torn apart by two rival political factions backed by armed groups. The Dbeibahs and the Haftars have emerged as powerful armed groupings, centered around their clans. Both want influence over the key State institutions that remain such as the Central Bank and the National Oil Corporation. 

The prospect of renewed fighting between the factions over the spoils of the Libyan state is deeply alarming near neighbours and those further afield. In recent days a number of senior players, including Turkey’s spy chief, have been in the country. The tensions are sufficiently serious to threaten the current entente between Turkey and Egypt which find themselves at different sides of Libya’s divide. Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, for instance, are supportive of the Haftars in part because of their anti-Islamist stance that opposes the reliance of the Tripoli government on militias linked to the Muslim Brotherhood movement – but also because they currently control much of the oil wealth. Russia too has an interest in who controls Libya’s oil wealth, while Western nations, who would normally be involving themselves in Libya’s complicated morass are elsewhere engaged in trying to shore up Ukraine. 

Ordinary Libyans, the overwhelming majority of who would like a quiet life and when asked would like to settle matters via the ballot box rather that the bullet can only look on as the drift to open conflict between warring factions, all backed by powerful outside interest vie for what seem to matters most to them; Libya’s oil.

*Mark Seddon is a former Speechwriter to UN Secretary-General Ban ki moon & former Adviser to the Office of the President of the UN General Assembly