Maghreb countries fear return of radicalized citizens after Assad’s fall

The downfall of the Assad regime in Syria has been celebrated globally. But there are many questions about what happens next. 

The opposition group credited with toppling Assad, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), was once affiliated with Al-Qaeda and is classified as a terrorist organization by the U.S., EU and UK. 

In recent years, HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, has attempted to present the group as a more moderate political force. However, questions remain regarding his governance plans and the organization’s long-term goals.

In light of the uncertainty, security officials from North African countries like Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco are concerned. According to Middle East Eye, these nations fear that their citizens, who joined militant groups in Syria might return home, potentially sparking unrest.

Among these countries, Tunisia faces the greatest risk. Estimates suggest that 3,000 to 6,000 Tunisians joined militant organizations in Syria during the conflict, making them one of the largest contingents of foreign fighters for the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.

Public sentiment reflects this concern. A Facebook campaign has emerged, urging Tunisian authorities to block the return of its citizens involved in Syrian conflicts and to tighten border security.

For years, Tunisia, Morocco, and Algeria have closely monitored their nationals who fought abroad and returned home. The prospect of large-scale repatriations now adds a new layer of complexity to regional security challenges.