Maghreb year in review

In many ways 2024 was one of the most important years for the Maghreb. Two elections, a World Cup bid confirmed, a group of breakaway states created their own alliance, plus significant economic growth for several of the countries. Yet there was famine and warfare across Sudan, increased terrorism across the Sahel and painful suffering of increased migration. 

Starting with Libya, for the second year in a row it was on the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) list of the top ten fastest-growing economies in the world. The IMF expects the Libyan economy to grow by 7.8% in 2024, decreasing to 6.9% in 2025. That tops the region and says a great deal about the promise of what could lie ahead for Libya. However, the main flashpoint of the year centered around the appointment of a new Central Bank governor and the removal of its incumbent, which exposed Libya’s bitter political divide around the allocation of Libya’s oil money. This crisis led to a month-long oil shutdown in Libya, yet the oil production outlook for 2025 looks very robust, back. 

In Egypt we saw a year dominated by attempts to broker a deal between Hamas and Israel. Egypt also navigated a diplomatic dance with Ethiopia over a controversial hydroelectric dam on the River Nile as tensions between the two countries escalated. This long-running dispute coming as Egypt began to forge closer military ties with Ethiopia’s neighbor Somalia, which has its own disagreement with Ethiopia. Then there was Egypt’s “delicate balance” with Sudan where the situation is dire. Questions emerged as to what side Egypt was on, but in a way, it has no choice but to be involved in Sudan with Egypt being one of the primary destinations of Sudanese refugees, roughly half a million have now fled to Egypt.

For Tunisia and Algeria, it was a year dominated by two presidential elections. Yet neither one seemed to enthuse confidence in the democratic process. According to Amnesty InternationalAlgerian authorities under Tebboune "have maintained their repression of civic space" and "a zero-tolerance approach to dissenting opinions". Earlier in the year Algeria experienced some water shortages that led to several riots however it emerged as one of the strongest voices in the UN over the war in Gaza, putting together repeated calls for a ceasefire.

In Tunisia President Kais Saied won a landslide victory keeping his grip on power after a first term in which opponents were imprisoned and the country's institutions overhauled to give him more authority. The closest challenger, businessman Ayachi Zammel, won 7.4% of the vote after sitting in prison for most of the campaign while facing multiple sentences for election-related crimes. The biggest test for Tunisia, moving forward, will be how to revive its economy as it contends with various international loans. 

In Morocco we saw continued growth particularly in the tourism sector, recording a record year in terms of travelers coming to the Kingdom. We also saw two very high-level visits, one from President Macron and another, shorter trip made by Chinese President Xi. Its increasingly clear that Morocco is becoming a gateway to Africa for the leading European nations and now also China, who is making a significant investment in the EV auto sector, Morocco also won the bid to host the 2034 World Cup which is only the second time an African country has such an honor. 

All in all, the Maghreb remains one of the most diverse and dynamic regions in the world. I can’twait to see what 2025 brings for this region. 

*Kieran Baker is an Emmy award winning journalist who has started up various networks including Al Jazeera English, Bloomberg TV Africa and TRT World.