Neighborhood watch: Egypt eyes Syria with unease

As the dust settles on Syria’s political upheaval, Egypt’s leadership is watching warily. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, long the epitome of brutal autocracy, has opened up opportunities and challenges for the Middle East. For Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the specter of revolution hitting closer to home is more than a theoretical concern—it is a threat to his grip on power.

The historical parallels loom large: Egypt’s own experience with the Arab Spring saw the ousting of Hosni Mubarak, the brief rule of the Muslim Brotherhood, and el-Sisi’s subsequent military takeover. Since then, his government has worked diligently to suppress dissent, imprisoning thousands of political opponents, and tightening control over the media. The recent events in Syria have raised concerns that upheavals may return.

Within days of Assad’s fall, Egyptian authorities cracked down on celebrations by Syrian refugees in Cairo, detaining dozens in an apparent warning against public displays of support for revolutionary change, as reported by the New York Times. The government swiftly imposed additional travel restrictions on Syrians, a move interpreted as an attempt to prevent political contagion. This is not just about Syria—it is an attempt to shore up Egypt’s own stability amid mounting economic and political malaise.

For years, el-Sisi has positioned himself as the region’s bulwark against Islamist resurgence. His regime, backed by Gulf allies suspicious of political Islam, has systematically dismantled the Muslim Brotherhood and sought to neutralize any Islamist challenge. The rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria, an Islamist faction with a history of jihadist affiliations, has only added to Cairo’s apprehension. While Egypt may not have mourned Assad’s fall, it fears the alternative: a new government in Damascus that could embolden opposition forces across the region.

Yet, the greatest threat to el-Sisi may not stem from Islamist groups but from the deepening frustration within his own borders. Years of economic hardship, compounded by inflation, currency devaluation, and dwindling state revenues, have left Egyptians struggling. The government’s grand infrastructure projects and heavy-handed security policies have failed to deliver the prosperity once promised. As discontent festers, the notion that change is possible—as demonstrated by Syria—could prove more dangerous to the Egyptian regime than any Islamist resurgence.

El-Sisi’s response has been one of preemptive suppression. Political arrests have surged, and prominent activists and critics have faced renewed crackdowns. But repression can only go so far. The Arab Spring demonstrated that when economic and political frustrations reach a tipping point, even the most entrenched regimes can crumble.

*Lonzo Cook is a journalist and writer. He spent two decades at CNN in a series of senior editorial and management roles including leading breaking news operations across Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. He currently works as a senior communications strategist, partnering with corporations and executives to develop integrated communication strategies to connect with audiences in our fast paced, ever changing engagement landscape.