Prolonged drought, flash flooding – the climate change contradictions impacting the Maghreb and Mediterranean

Short, heavy rainfall is typical across the Mediterranean, and to some degree the Maghreb too, but like many of the climate extremes in recent years, nothing is typical about what has been happening there recently.

Last fall, deadly floods hit an arc from Spain to the Balkans, and from Morocco to Libya. More than 200 people were killed in Valencia in October, not long after a deluge dumped five times the month’s ordinary rainfall across Europe in a single week.

In 2023, Mediterranean Storm Daniel passed through eastern Libya bringing heavy rainfall and flooding that resulted in large-scale destruction and death, killing thousands. In fact, Daniel dropped eight months of rain, in one weekend, on Libya’s northeast region.

Also, last fall we saw rare rain in the Sahara Desert, images of water gushing through palm trees and sand dunes in southeastern Morocco. Then in September, Morocco was hit by extraordinary torrential rains, leaving at least 18 people dead, with media reports saying, 'people have never seen anything like it.’

Scientists say climate change is increasing not just the strength of the region’s devastating storms but also the frequency — and they predict that it will get only worse. In fact, disaster is beginning to look like the new normal.

The coastal areas of the Mediterranean basin have always been vulnerable to extreme rainfall, especially in places where there are mountains near the sea, and particularly in those Maghreb countries that border it. But it’s getting worse. More rain falls now during “extreme precipitation events” than just decades before. The intensity of these extreme rain interludes is likely to increase too, partly because the Mediterranean region is already warming 20 per cent faster than the global average. And as the temperature of the air rises, so does its capacity to hold water.

Climate models predict heavier rainfall events in the Mediterranean and Maghreb, but overall average rainfall will decrease. In other words, dry areas will be drier, but when extreme rains come, they will be more intense. Climate change is creating a cycle of prolonged droughts yet more frequent flooding across the Maghreb and Mediterranean countries. Think that's a contradiction?

It is widely known that Morocco is experiencing one of the worst droughts in its meteorological recorded history. A recent report published by the General Directorate of Meteorology described the scale of the crisis: “This is the longest drought the country has ever experienced; 2023 was the driest in the last 80 years and witnessed more than twenty extreme weather events, including the all-time record temperature of 50.4 degrees Celsius in the agricultural region of Agadir.”

This March, Morocco saw heavy and consistent rainfall and some dared to ask: is this the beginning of the end of the drought? Unfortunately, it’s not that simple, and according to Anas Mansouri, a researcher in arid zone farming, “most likely, the rainfall will not last enough to put an end to the structural drought. What we’re seeing is rather an alternation between long droughts and violent rainy spells.” 

Mansouri goes on to say that, “the outlook remains uncertain. Morocco is particularly exposed to the effects of climate change, with increased variability in rainfall and increasingly extreme temperatures. These climate changes are increasing the frequency of prolonged droughts, while intensifying certain episodes of heavy rainfall, as is the case today. This alternation between prolonged drought and excessive rainfall poses a major challenge for water resource management and food security.” 

He concludes, “This year’s weather conditions underline the need for Morocco to adopt more effective adaptation strategies. Improving water management is becoming an absolute priority, notably by strengthening rainwater storage policies, promoting water-saving irrigation techniques, and developing desalination infrastructures in the most vulnerable areas. At the same time, the adoption of more resilient agricultural practices, such as the use of drought-tolerant crops and the optimization of crop rotation, could limit the effects of climatic hazards on food production.” 

The good news is that Morocco and other Maghreb countries are adapting, and the development of drought-resistant seeds has been a significant advancement. Research centers such as the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) are pioneering the introduction of resilient genotypes that can withstand both drought and heat while maintaining high crop yields. These so-called "elite lines" of grain, including wheat and barley, have shown promising results, with some farmers achieving yields up to four tons per hectare, even with minimal rainfall.

The hope is innovation can keep pace with the soaring temperatures, devastating drought and increase in flash flooding. Only time will tell.

*Kieran Baker is an Emmy award winning journalist who has started up various networks including Al Jazeera English, Bloomberg TV Africa and TRT World.