Russia’s switch from Syria to Libya and what it means for the Maghreb

After the fall of Bashar Al Assad, there was a great deal of speculation that his long-term Russian backers would be shown the door by the new regime in Damascus. Russia, and before that the Soviet Union, has held a long-term lease on a naval base in Tartus, providing it with its only Mediterranean base and only its third all year-round ice-free port, the others being in the disputed Crimea and Kaliningrad in the Baltic.

This last week, the new government in Damascus abruptly ended the treaty arrangements and ordered the Russians to leave. Syrian Authorities claimed that the revenue from the port would “now benefit the Syrian state,” reversing the previous agreement under which Russia received 65% of Tartus’ profits.  On Sunday, the new Syrian government reportedlyimposed bans on imports from Russia, Iran and Israel, sending mixed signals, especially since Russia and Iran have also been key trading partners. So far President Putin and the Russian government remain tight lipped – they had already begun drawing down Russia’s military presence in Syria. For NATO and Western Governments, this decision will no doubt be a welcome one. Their hope has been that Russia’s influence in the Middle East and Maghreb, limited as it is, would be weakened by regime change in Damascus and now to all intents and purposes, it hasbeen. 

Except, has it? Russia has sought to be a player and have influence in the Mediterranean for centuries. It is not going to be deterred by setbacks in Syria. In fact, Moscow’s eyes have long been on the possibilities offered by the broken state that is Libya, and in particular with Libyan National Army (LNA) Commander Khalifa Haftar. Even before the abrupt ending of the treaty with Damascus, Moscow had begun moving military hardware and personnel to Eastern Libya. Putin had of course supported Haftar’s rebellion against Tripoli back in 2019 and is simply calling in favours. Increasingly the Maghreb, the Sahel and West Africa is seen by Moscow as areas in which to extend influence, and now especially that the final Ba’athist power in the Middle East in Syria has been extinguished through popular will. 

All of this should perhaps be seen in some perspective. For while Moscow casts around for a replacement warm water base in the Mediterraneanand tries to extend its limited influence in the Maghreb, the US, even now that it is led by a President not necessarily that interested in deeper involvement in the region, the fact is that the US controls around 750 military bases in at least 80 countries worldwide and spends more on its military than the next 10 countries combined. That said many in the Maghreb will resent the fact that the old power politics of 18th and 19th centuries seem to be being played all over again.

*Mark Seddon is a former Speechwriter to UN Secretary-General Ban ki moon & former Adviser to the Office of the President of the UN General Assembly