Tariffs and the Maghreb- will there be an impact?

The 1930s were defined by a period of economic isolationism and championed by the United States, as well as the widespread use of tariffs to control trade and prices and usually to the benefit of large and emerging powers such as the US at that time. The pre-Second World War years have receded into history and largely because there aren’t really any people left who can remember them, but scroll forward to 2025 and with a new American President elected on the promise of putting ‘America first’, global leaders are grasping for their old political history and economy text books, because we are now slap-bang in the middle of almost daily announcements of new tariffs and warnings about dumping. And while this may principally have been about global steel production in the past, it has rapidly morphed into a whole series of tit for tat US tariffs, against Canada, against Mexico and against the European Union. And the more President Trump deals them out, the stronger the response from what were erstwhile trading partners until a few weeks ago. The latest threat to emanate from the White House is a 200% increase in tariffs on alcohol from the EU. Should President Trump extend these to Britain, one wonders just how popular this may make him with all of those Scotch drinkers. While the President may not drink alcohol, many of his friends do.

The Maghreb so far seems relatively spared from this new global trade war. If the Trump administration has had any visible effect so far, this will largely have been felt by the sudden removal of funding from 83% of USAID projects overseas. And this funding cut appears to be a permanent one. However, these are early days, and any global recession that may yet follow a trade war is going to impact every economy.

And yet, largely unnoticed by those who are busy watching the economies of the big Western countries, and of China and Japan, other countries are beginning to take a tougher stance – possibly they may even be taking their cue, from President Trump. Because the Moroccan Ministry of Industry and Trade has just launched an anti-dumping investigation into steel wires imported from Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The investigation began after some local companies began complaining about imports of Egyptian and UAE manufactured steel wires that they say are being dumped on Morocco and which are putting local industries at a real disadvantage. This is all very reminiscent, albeit at a smaller scale, of the US claim that their steel industry has been progressively undercut and then shuttered by cheap Chinese steel imports.

So, if the investigation does support the claims of Moroccan companies and anti-dumping action is then taken, what will the response of Egypt and the UAE be? Watch this space!

*Mark Seddon is a former Speechwriter to UN Secretary-General Ban ki moon & former Adviser to the Office of the President of the UN General Assembly