The impact of a Trump presidency

The day after Donald Trump defied pollsters and pundits to win a landslide victory over his Democrat opponent, Kamala Harris, The Times of Israel reported that when Prime Minister Netanyahu called to congratulate him, Trump repeated his wish that the war in Gaza be ended – but also specifically gave a time-line; the inauguration of his Presidency on the 20^th January 2025. There could be over two months more of the most appalling human suffering yet to come in Gaza and Lebanon, but to all intents and purposes it appears at one level that more has been achieved during one phone call than 13 months of wasted air miles from outgoing Secretary of State Blinken and prevarication from President Biden. 

No one should pretend that Donald Trump cares much, it at all about the Palestinians. He doesn’t much care for Netanyahu either; what motivates Trump is the baleful effect that war has on trade and economic growth. He is also mindful that the constituency that just returned him to the White House, struggling as it is economically, is tired of seeing billions pumped into endless foreign wars. Only last week for instance it was revealed by the BBC that over $7 billion worth of military equipment and facilities had been abandoned by the US after its withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Trump, it would seem wants to try and avoid a wider war in the Middle East, even if Netanyahu will be doing his hardest to try and drag the US into a direct war with Iran. And yet this is where the logic of ‘never ending wars’ meets its nemesis. Iran is not Iraq; it is far stronger and could wreak havoc on Israel. It could also shut down the Straits of Hormuz and the international oil trade.

Trump and the Saudis would very much like to revive the Abraham Accords, and probably believe that the Palestinian question can be buried – metaphorically -even deeper than it was when they were drawn up. Netanyahu will likely intensify his bid to annex the Occupied Palestinian Territories in their entirety. But here again, the opinion on the street right across the Maghreb and the Arab World is four-square against rewarding Israel for anything. In fact, the converse may be about to happen as Israel now faces the prospect of a UN General Assembly Resolution being advanced by Malaysia calling for it to be expelled from the United Nations. 

Now it may be that neither Donald Trump or Netanyahu have any time for the UN, but Israel is moving into pariah state territory, devoid of any friends other than the Americans and the tame Brits and Germans. Once again, even if Trump doesn’t care about the UN, he will care if increasingly the rest of the World gravitates towards China, Russia, Brazil & South Africa and the emerging BRICS organization. 

The US neo cons at the turn of the century believed that this was going to be ‘America’s Century’, that there would be a unipolar World. 

Never has this been more unlikely. 

*Mark Seddon is a former Speechwriter to UN Secretary-General Ban ki moon & former Adviser to the Office of the President of the UN General Assembly