The results of the U.S. election will be felt far and wide

On November 5th, the US will elect a new President. The new President whether Trump or Harris, won’t actually be sworn in until January, but the results of this election will have enormous and immediate ramifications for the Middle East in particular and also for Europe as well, where war continues to rage between Russia and Ukraine. It will also indirectly have an impact on the Maghreb. 

In truth we may have to for wait a few days until after November 5th until we really discover who hasbeen elected and if the election is as close as some polls suggest that it might be, the results will then be hotly contested. The American Constitution may have been drawn up by some very wise men who strived to make it as a difficult as possible for it to be abused, but America’s electoral system remains rooted in the Hanoverian era. Different rules often govern different states. In a few, States electors have to technically be ‘invited to vote’, which could in extremis lead to them not being invited to vote at all. 

Pollsters have tended to underestimate support for Donald Trump. And if they are doing so again, the vote could be very close. He could possibly win. Indeed, Kamala Harris, who may be Biden’s replacement is still effectively the incumbent, and as such is feeling the blow back from many working families who don’t feel that that their economic lot has improved over the decade, even if all the indicators suggest that things have improved somewhat under Biden. Immigration has become a stick by which Trump batters Harris and then there is Gaza and Lebanon and the cold fury of many American Arab voters in Michigan in particular, a fury directed towards Biden, Harris & the Democrats. 

Harris may yet pull things out of the bag, especially if women come and vote in big numbers. And should she be elected has indicated that her government would be different to that of Biden. She is less wedded to unwavering support for Israel, especially as Netanyahu’s brinkmanship threatens to drag America directly into war. But would she stop the weapons shipments? Would she support the issuingof ICC arrest warrants for Netanyahu & Gallant (allthe Hamas leadership who are also subject to arrest warrants have been assassinated by the Israelis). And what of Trump, if he becomes President?  Netanyahu is certainly hoping for this, believing that Trump will let him ‘finish off the job’, whatever that may mean for the Palestinians or the Lebanese. But then Trump is as reluctant as Harris to see large scale US military intervention. He knows what this can do to the World economy. So, what of his hopes to revive the Abraham Accords; of some of his Republican colleagues hope of persuading Saudi Arabia to take Gaza on as a protectorate and turn it into some kind of glittering Mediterranean Emirate? This mirrors Netanyahu’s own view of the World, and one which envisages positioning Sunni against Shia, the defeat of Iran and the creation of a Greater Israel on Palestinian lands.  

All of this seems pretty fanciful and especially as the anger on the Arab Street, currently pent up and often controlled, could yet explode. There have already been plenty of marches and demonstrations across the Maghreb and wider Middle East against Israel. ‘Normalisation’ of relations between countries that include Morocco with Israel may just about hold, but this is not popular, however it is dressed up with people across the region and beyond. Until something tangible can happen; war can be ended, the Israelis leave Gaza and progress towards a Palestinian State is made, more ‘normalisation’ may be the last thing that happens, new US president or not.  

*Mark Seddon is a former Speechwriter to UN Secretary-General Ban ki moon & former Adviser to the Office of the President of the UN General Assembly