The shockwaves of Syria felt across the Maghreb

The fall of the house of Assad in Syria has sent shockwaves right across the
Middle East and beyond. Which is not to say that there was ever much doubt
that the grip of Assad’s Ba’ath party hadn’t been seriously weakened by the
years of civil war and repression that followed in the wake of the Arab Spring
uprisings, but more the speed in which the HTS rebels moved across the
country, seizing towns and cities and toppling statues of the former ruling
family, finally marching into Damascus. Despite the fact that Syria’s military
had been sufficiently degraded to not pose a serious problem for Israel, what has
often been talked of as an ‘arc of resistance’ to Israel has been immeasurably
weakened with Hamas and Hezbollah now largely out of the picture and with
only Iran in the near region left standing – and also looking vulnerable to future
conflict with Israel and with the support of the United States. Further afield, in
the Maghreb, Algeria which has had long term links with the Assad regime also
now finds itself more isolated and alongside Tunisia, which like Algeria was
still making supportive noises to Assad in the days leading up to his toppling.
Morocco which has never been a friend to Assad’s Syria has taken this moment
to loudly remind its neighbours that they have been caught on the wrong side of
history – even if history tends to be written and re-written with sometimes
alarming speed in the Middle East.
Bashar al-Assad, the apparently unassuming London trained doctor who took
power after his brother, Bassel, the designated successor was killed in a car
crash, ended up presiding over a regime more brutal than that even of his late
father. Their brand of secular Arab nationalism may have provided protections
to some minorities, most notably their own Alawi tribe and also Christians. Yet
the dungeons built to hold, torture and kill huge numbers of Assad’s opponents
were the stuff of legend even before their doors were opened in recent days by
rebel fighters.
The fall of Assad has largely been welcomed in the West, partly because of the
tyrannical nature of the regime, but also because there is a belief that Iran has
been weakened and Russia, another long-time ally of the Assads has also lost
influence and may be in danger of losing its navy and airbases in the country.
Much of this pre-supposes a Soviet era ideological commitment to the old
regime, and yet Putin and Lavrov, ever the pragmatists, seem to believe that
they can fashion a new relationship with the new HTS regime, made up largely
of jihadists who up until a few days ago were largely designated as ‘terrorists’
by many Western countries. Either way, memories are often short. The West
backed the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan against the Soviets and ended up
fighting them to a draw when they became known as the Taliban.
Meanwhile the newly liberated Syria finds its northern borders partly occupied
by Turkey, while the Israelis have swept down from the occupied Golan Heights
to seize even more territory while the Americans continue to bomb jihadis that

they view as not being moderate. A re-birth of sorts is happening and as yet we
don’t really know which ugly habits the new infant may learn. And no one has
yet got around to asking the new rulers of Damascus whether they intend to
hold anything as quaint as an election.

*Mark Seddon is a former Speechwriter to UN Secretary-General Ban ki
moon & former Adviser to the Office of the President of the UN General
Assembly