Tunisia votes: democracy and economic stability at risk

They may not be on the ballot, but the outcome of Tunisia’s presidential election will likely define the future of its fragile democracy and set the course for an economy struggling to escape stagnation. Since the revolution in 2011, Tunisia has been celebrated as the sole democratic success story of the Arab uprisings. However, recent political and economic reverses have put the survival of its democratic institutions and social cohesion at risk. The election’s result is not only crucial for Tunisia’s future but will resonate across the Maghreb, where democratic challenges remain for most of the region, especially the Sahel. 

At the heart of Tunisia’s political crisis is President Kais Saied, whose rise to power has tested the country’s democratic resilience. Elected in 2019, Saied capitalized on widespread public disillusionment with the political elite and promised to “clean up” the government. However, his rule has been characterized by increasing authoritarian tendencies. In July 2021, Saied suspended parliament, dismissed the prime minister, and has since ruled by decree. While many Tunisians initially supported his consolidation of power as a response to years of political gridlock, Saied’s moves have alarmed democracy advocates. The upcoming election will decide whether Tunisians will double down on his vision of a more centralized, populist government or opt to restore democratic checks and balances.

Economically, Tunisia’s challenges are immense. Unemployment, particularly among the youth, remains stubbornly high at around 15%, while inflation has eroded purchasing power. The country is also saddled with significant public debt, and growth has stagnated, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the global surge in food and energy prices. Saied has resisted pursuing an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout, which many economists see as a necessary but politically unpopular step. Instead, he has focused on centralizing decision-making, an approach that has done little to inspire confidence in investors. The election will determine whether the next administration will pursue critical economic reforms, such as restructuring debt and encouraging private investment, or continue down a path of economic isolation and instability. 

The implications of Tunisia’s election will extend far beyond its borders. For parts of the region, where autocratic rule remains pre-dominant, Tunisia has been a beacon of hope for those who aspire to democracy. Should Tunisia fall deeper into authoritarianism, it would send a grim signal to those pushing for democratic reforms in the region. Conversely, a reassertion of democratic governance could inspire renewed optimism across North Africa and the wider Arab world. 

Ultimately, this election presents Tunisians with a stark choice. It is not only a referendum on Kais Saied’s presidency but also on the future of Tunisia’s hard-won democracy. The result will shape the country’s political and economic trajectory, with major ramifications for the rest of the Maghreb.

*Lonzo Cook is a journalist and writer. He spent two decades at CNN in a series of senior editorial and management roles including leading breaking news operations across Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. In addition to writing on international affairs, national security and business, he works with media companies and corporations on how to evolve and create content to stay relevant to key audiences.