What a Trump presidency could mean for the Maghreb

The Prussian diplomat Klemens von Metternich famously once said; ‘When France sneezes the rest of Europe catches a cold’. As Donald Trump prepares to take the US presidency in a few days’ time it might make better sense to adapt this syllogism to ‘When the United States sneezes the rest of the World catches a fever’. Much analysis and conjecture has of course already been devoted to what a Trump Presidency might look like when it comes to Russia and Ukraine, or the Middle East or indeed China and Taiwan. If there is a consensus it might be that things are going to become yet more unpredictable and bumpy. 

In recent days some attention has also been given to what effect a Trump Presidency may have on the decidedly and historically frosty relations between Morocco and Algeria. 

Writing in Diplomacy Now, Riccadro Fabiano, offered this analysis; [Up until now] ‘Mutual self-restraint and United States engagement have prevented a direct conflict (between Morocco and Algeria) from materialising, but after Donald Trump’s re-election as president, the two sides’ perceptions are shifting again. The risk is that with Washington unlikely to play the same calming role as before, the security repercussions of future incidents will become harder to manage, unless European governments decide to take up the role previously played by the US in the region.’ Of course, it may well be that neither Morocco or more likely Algeria particularly welcome what they may see as interference from the outside, unless of course it is deemed to be in one or the others favour. And as far as Algeria is concerned any greater role played by France will be regarded with suspicion. And Algeria is this month presiding as chair of the UN Security Council, so still has time to take a particular course of action that could demonstrate its belief that it can take independent action when it so wishes. 

Much of the concern surrounding a Trump Presidency, amongst Western analysts, comes from a fear that either it will be too partisan and make unilateral decisions irrespective of the United Nations and European Union, or that it may simply disengage, directing its attentions elsewhere. A policy of ‘America First’ does not suggest that over the next few years, the US much intends to act as a global policeman. It is more likely to mean that America will get involved when it deems that its direct interests are challenged. Boiling it all down, Morocco will no doubt be hoping that the United States will get further behind its Autonomy Plan. And Morocco is also pleased that Marco Rubio is to be US Secretary of State, especially given his previous commitment to opening a US consulate in Western Sahara. It is not clear as to what Algeria could do to prevent such a scenario unfolding, but in all of this, the less predictable the situation internationally the more potential there is for instability on the ground.

*Mark Seddon is a former Speechwriter to UN Secretary-General Ban ki moon & former Adviser to the Office of the President of the UN General Assembly