What the Sudan crisis could mean for the Maghreb

It’s been almost 16 months since war erupted between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF); Sudan is facing one of the fastest unfolding crises globally, with unprecedented needs. According to the UN about 25 million people – of whom over 14 million are children – need humanitarian assistance and support. Alarmingly, some 17.7 million people – more than one-third of the country’s population – are facing acute food insecurity (IPC3+) under a warning of potential famine issued by FEWS NET and underwritten by the Global IPC Group. Of these, 4.9 million people are on the brink of famine. More than 8.6 million people – about 16 per cent of the total population of the country – have fled their homes since the conflict started. They have sought refuge within Sudan or in neighboring countries, making Sudan the largest displacement crisis in the world.

So, what does that really mean for the Maghreb– in particular Libya and Egypt- well a report out earlier this week from the International Rescue Committee (IRC) states that over 96,000 Sudanese refugees have arrived in Libya. An average of 2,500 to 3,000 refugees from Sudan are expected to arrive every day in the coming months. The IRC is warning of urgent and escalating humanitarian needs for those refugees arriving in Libya with little-to-no provisions. The influx has placed additional pressure on an already strained service delivery landscape, and an urgent scale up in support is needed. 73% of the refugees traveled directly from Sudan through the desert in the Al Kufra region (southeast Libya), whilst others arrived via Chad or Egypt. Many are hoping for pathways out of Libya, as local resources are severely strained.

More than 6.6 million people displaced within Sudan and 1.8 million have fled the country. Also, more than 8.6 million people have been displaced by fighting within Sudan and neighboring countries. According to the International Organization for Migration Displacement Tracking Matrix (IOM DTM) over 6.6 million of them have been displaced and are sheltering mainly with host communities in 7,076 locations across Sudan’s 18 states. Out of the 2 million that fled the country about 1.8 million people have sought refuge in the neighboring countries of Central African Republic, Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia and South Sudan as of 31 March, according to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR). With close to 4 million children displaced, Sudan is facing the largest child displacement crisis in the world.

The knock-on impact is only just now being felt as we see increasing numbers of asylum seekers and migrants attempting the life threatening journey to get access the Mediterranean. The Maghreb is likely to start to take the brunt of these refugees as time goes by. Only a credible solution in the Sudan will ease the pressure; will the US-sponsored talks on securing a ceasefire in Sudan, which kicked off in Switzerland this week, despite the Sudanese government staying away, be enough? Something tells me it will take a lot more.

Kieran Baker is an Emmy award winning journalist who has started up various networks including Al Jazeera English, Bloomberg TV Africa and TRT World.