Will Africa ever get a permanent seat on the UN Security Council?

This week UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres called for Africa to be a given a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. The Security Council is the most powerful component of the United Nations having significant responsibilities, including authorising peacekeeping operations, imposing international sanctions and determining how the UN should respond to war and conflict. It’s five permanent members will also effectively determine Mr Guterres successor, as they have done since the UN was created at the end of the Second World War. A visiting Martian would be surprised to learn that Africa, never mind South & Central America and the Indo-Pacific region, still have no representation as Permanent Members, while Europe has two members, France and the UK.  Egypt, Liberia, Ethiopia, and South Africa were among the founding members of the United Nations.

UN reform has long been a mantra for a succession of UN Secretary-Generals and even more Presidents of the UN General Assembly. But this latest call for reform comes with a greater sense of urgency and unity of purpose. “The world has changed since 1945. But the composition of the Council, despite a few changes, has not kept pace”, said Guterres at the UN General Assembly debate on UN reform organised by Sierra Leone. The African Union has long been pushing for the continent to have two permanent representatives on the council and an additional two seats as non-permanent representatives. And while Africa does have representation in terms of elected non-permanent representatives, they do not have the veto powers of the permanent members.

The current President of the General Assembly, Dennis Francis of Trinidad has also been forthright about the Africa deficit. Speaking during the debate he said:

“We cannot accept that the world’s preeminent peace and security body lacks a permanent voice for a continent of well over a billion people - a young and rapidly growing population - making up 28% of the membership of the United Nations.” 

Getting Britain or France to voluntarily given up their place in favour of one European Member State will be difficult enough. Expanding the number of Permanent Members, all with a veto, also begs the question; would the Security Council find it even more difficult to reach majority decisions with the threat of the use of the veto by more members?

And then of course, which country or countries in Africa, would be the strongest candidates for membership? The easier answer might be to suggest that for geographical and population size reasons, Nigeria and South Africa might be obvious candidates? But then what of the Francophone countries and the Maghreb?  Wouldn’t Egypt be vying for membership? But then offering up reasons for reform not happening has of course been something of a time honoured excuse. Morocco was last elected as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council in 2012, so will be well aware of the seemingly unending debate about UN Reform, just as it may be minded to propose solutions that may have more of an appeal to the Maghreb and North Africa in general. If UN reform is to move forward would it not be possible to reserve at least one seat for North Africa as a whole, with a rotating Member State representation? 

*Mark Seddon is a former Speechwriter to UN Secretary-General Ban ki moon & former Adviser to the Office of the President of the UN General Assembly