Mohamed Salah Souilem says Tunisia needs to raise investment from around 15% of GDP to at least 25% to lift growth and create jobs. Debt and budget pressures limit the state's ability to invest and attract private capital.
On Thursday, September 24, 2026, former Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) monetary policy chief Mohamed Salah Souilem said on "Expresso" that Tunisia needs to raise investment from around 15% to at least 25% of GDP to speed up growth and create jobs. That is a proposed target, not the current rate. Independent estimates put investment at about 15% to 15.4% of GDP, while some experts say faster growth could require 25% to 30%. Public debt remains above 80% of GDP. The gap is wide.
Weak growth limits tax revenue. At the same time, wages, debt servicing and subsidies take up a large share of public spending, leaving the government with less room to invest. Souilem argues that public investment can draw in private capital rather than simply add to state spending. The goal is to fund productive projects that support wider economic activity. Budgets are tight.
Public debt stood at about 40% of GDP in 2010. It is now estimated at 83.4% to 85% in 2026. Debt was reported at 141.7 billion dinars in 2025 and is projected to reach 156.7 billion dinars this year. Souilem says stronger growth would expand tax revenue, give the state more capacity to invest and help cut the deficit. In recent years, the pattern has run the other way: slower growth has constrained revenue, while spending pressures have added to deficits and debt.
Debt servicing shows the strain. Independent reporting puts the cost at about 24.44 billion dinars in 2025, with 23.05 billion dinars budgeted for 2026. Those sums compete with investment, wages and subsidies for public funds. Official Tunisian releases distributed through TAP and estimates reported by independent media describe different measures. Actual outturns, budget allocations and forecasts are not interchangeable. That distinction matters.
The investment shortfall is more than a financing statistic. Limited public investment can weigh on infrastructure and public enterprises. A tight budget also narrows the state's ability to support a broader recovery. Regional reporting, including Anadolu Agency's coverage, has described economic pressures alongside concerns about food and water supplies. These pressures make it important to direct scarce investment toward projects with lasting economic and social returns.
Growth has improved, but it remains below the level needed to meet Tunisia's employment and development needs. Souilem cited growth of 1.6% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025 during his September 24 appearance. A later World Bank estimate, summarized in the Tunisia Economic Monitor and reported by Leconomiste Maghrebin, put 2025 growth at 2.7% and projected about 2.3% for 2026. The same reporting put growth at 2.4% in the first half of 2026, with the second-quarter pace around 2.3%. The figures reflect different estimates and publication dates. Together, they point to a modest recovery, not a decisive change in the trend.
Those rates remain well below the growth potential before 2010, which Souilem put at around 4.5%. He also pointed to global uncertainty. The Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Gulf and between Iran and the United States have affected oil and commodity prices, inflation and global growth. Anadolu Agency's reporting also describes gradual improvement alongside persistent structural pressures.
Souilem called for more varied financing and greater use of funds available from international financial institutions. He said borrowing makes sense when its cost is below the expected return on the project it supports. That test matters as debt rises and planned debt-servicing costs continue to take a significant share of public resources. Financing choices must account for the immediate cost and whether projects can lift productivity enough to support future revenue and employment. The test is simple.
Revenue is another part of the pressure, as explored in Maghreb Insider's tax burden analysis. Souilem's argument adds the investment side: raising revenue alone will not restore growth if the state cannot invest and private capital does not follow. A credible public investment programme could draw in private activity. Its effect depends on project selection, implementation and sustainable financing.
Tunisia's 25% investment goal shows the scale of the recovery needed. It does not replace fiscal discipline. The test is whether public investment can regain space in the budget and attract private capital while keeping financing costs below expected project returns. Without stronger investment and sustained productivity gains, growth is unlikely to generate the revenue and jobs Souilem says Tunisia needs.
